The Times They Are A-Changin'

Who'd have thought a year - or even a month - ago that the Quebec election would turn out this way? Sure the Liberals still won a plurality, but the significance of the results should not be underestimated.

The emergence of the Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ) constitutes a seismic shift in the political landscape and culture of Quebec - and one that I consider to be for the better. For decades the conventional wisdom has been that provincial elections are a battle between the federalist Liberals (LPQ) and separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) - making the sovereignty question the most important and overriding issue of every campaign. Notwithstanding the fact that this ensured the future of our country consistently rested on a knife's edge, it also sapped a good deal of the strength out of Quebec democracy. Government does a whole lot more than just separate or not. Reducing every election to a virtual referendum on how Quebecers feel about having another referendum allowed all other issues to be, at best, greatly deprioritized, and at worst swept under the rug. Economically, socially and even on the issue of Quebec "nationhood", the ADQ, LPQ and PQ offer very different perspectives on how Quebec should be governed. (The ADQ is particularly notable since it introduces an element of conservatism into the spectrum that was previously non-existent.) For the first time in generations Quebecers have some real political choices.

Now, if you're a federalist you might be worried that the emergence of a rival anti-separatist party to the LPQ threatens to "split" the federalist vote. Don't be. The dream of any federalist is to see the end (or at least neutralizing) of the separatist movement. The emergence of a strong third party to smash the status quo PQ-LPQ battle is an essential ingredient to achieving this goal. So long as the battle for Quebec was consistently fought between only two parties, the sovereigntist movement would be kept alive by the sheer fact that the PQ held the mantle of being the only alternative to the Liberals. When people were sick of the LPQ, they had no where else to turn. With another viable party on the scene the PQ is no longer the default anti-Liberal vote. Insofar as the ADQ and Liberals provide viable alternative platforms for the governance of Quebec within a united Canada, it opens the door for the PQ to become a one-issue third party in the Assembly. And once they are relegated to the sidelines, they become vulnerable to slowly slipping from the scene - no longer propped up by the old dichotomy.

Sure there is the risk of some vote splitting, but if you want to see the eventual end of the separatist presence in Quebec how else do you believe it could come about? It's not as though the LPQ would one day just win every single seat and govern Quebec as a one-party state. The strong showing of the ADQ may just be the beginning of the end of separatism in Quebec.