The Quebec By-Elections
For weeks pundits have been predicting that the close race in Quebec's by-elections might churn out some surprising results. Certainly those results were surprising, but equally so was the fact that it wasn't really close at all.
The Conservatives absolutely destroyed the Bloc in Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean with a whopping 59.4%-27.0%. To give some context to that kind of win, Jim Prentice won Calgary Centre-North (that's right, an Alberta riding in the Conservative stronghold of Calgary) by a lesser spread. Not to mention that Roberval has been Bloc heartland since the party was founded. Furthermore, it was previously held by one of the party's most prominent MPs and a former interim-leader.
More interesting than how well the Conservatives did in Roberval is how poorly the Liberals did everywhere. Just to get things started, they didn't even crack 10% in Roberval or St. Hyacinthe.
Then, of course, there is Outremont. Everyone thought it would be close. It wasn't. The NDP took the riding by a margin of 47%-29%.
The fact that the results were so devastating to the Liberals made their leader's comments this morning all the more unbelievable. He actually had the audacity to claim "Most people decided to support the NDP candidate. They thought maybe that it was a clear signal about their disagreement with the current government". In other words: getting the worst political beating of your leadership thus far is a signal that people don't like your opponent. Wow. Perhaps Dion's comments should be taken to be an implicit admission that the real contest is now between the Conservatives and the NDP.
In any event I suspect that if the tea leaves of these by-elections mean anything for the immediate future, it is that an election is not likely anytime soon. The mathematics of the current party standings require all three opposition parties to vote against the government on a confidence question in order for Harper to be defeated. And yesterday's results show that such a move is not in any of their interests. The Bloc and Liberals are reaching new lows of popularity in Quebec, while the NDP, now 30 seats strong (enough to pass Conservative legislation) could end up squandering their newfound minority clout in a general election.
The Conservatives absolutely destroyed the Bloc in Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean with a whopping 59.4%-27.0%. To give some context to that kind of win, Jim Prentice won Calgary Centre-North (that's right, an Alberta riding in the Conservative stronghold of Calgary) by a lesser spread. Not to mention that Roberval has been Bloc heartland since the party was founded. Furthermore, it was previously held by one of the party's most prominent MPs and a former interim-leader.
More interesting than how well the Conservatives did in Roberval is how poorly the Liberals did everywhere. Just to get things started, they didn't even crack 10% in Roberval or St. Hyacinthe.
Then, of course, there is Outremont. Everyone thought it would be close. It wasn't. The NDP took the riding by a margin of 47%-29%.
The fact that the results were so devastating to the Liberals made their leader's comments this morning all the more unbelievable. He actually had the audacity to claim "Most people decided to support the NDP candidate. They thought maybe that it was a clear signal about their disagreement with the current government". In other words: getting the worst political beating of your leadership thus far is a signal that people don't like your opponent. Wow. Perhaps Dion's comments should be taken to be an implicit admission that the real contest is now between the Conservatives and the NDP.
In any event I suspect that if the tea leaves of these by-elections mean anything for the immediate future, it is that an election is not likely anytime soon. The mathematics of the current party standings require all three opposition parties to vote against the government on a confidence question in order for Harper to be defeated. And yesterday's results show that such a move is not in any of their interests. The Bloc and Liberals are reaching new lows of popularity in Quebec, while the NDP, now 30 seats strong (enough to pass Conservative legislation) could end up squandering their newfound minority clout in a general election.
posted by Brad Nicpon at
9/18/2007 02:21:00 PM
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